Population policy

One child policy

 

Population of China from 1961-2003.

With a population of over 1.3 billion, the PRC is very concerned about its population growth and has attempted, with mixed results,to implement a strict family planning policy. The government's goal is one child per family, with exceptions for ethnic minorities and flexibility in rural areas, where a family can have a second child if the first is a girl or physically disabled. The government's goal is to stabilize population growth early in the 21st century, though some projections estimate a population of anywhere ranging from 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion by 2025. Hence, the country's family planning minister has indicated that China will maintain its one-child policy until at least the year 2020.

The policy is resisted, particularly in rural areas, because of the need for agricultural labour and a traditional preference for boys (who can later serve as male heirs). Families who breach the policy often lie during the census.Official government policy opposes forced sterilization or abortion, but allegations of coercion continue as local officials, who are faced with penalties for failing to curb population growth, may resort to forced abortion or sterilization, or manipulation of census figures.

The decreasing reliability of PRC population statistics since family planning began in the late 1970s has made evaluating the effectiveness of the policy difficult.Estimates by Chinese demographers of the average number of children for a Chinese woman vary from 1.5 to 2.0. The government is particularly concerned with the large imbalance in the sex ratio at birth, apparently the result of a combination of traditional preference for boys and family planning pressure, which led to the ban of using ultrasound devices for the purpose of preventing sex-selective abortion. Other factors include under-reporting of female children to circumvent the law and that some areas unofficially allow a second child if the first is not a male but not otherwise. Based on a 2005 report by China's National Population and Family Planning Commission, there were 118.6 boys born for every 100 girls, and in some rural areas the boy/girl ratio could be as high as 130/100. As this trend of gender imbalance is on the increase, experts warn of increased social instability should this trend continue.